Fred Thompson has done this campaign his way, you have to give him that much. For months, he has said that South Carolina would be his initial focus. That has always been a risky strategy.
Using the South Carolina firewall strategy, Thompson ran the risk that one candidate would gain enough momentum in the first four states that it would render him unstoppable.
That clearly has not happened.
Not only has Thompson clearly passed Giuiliani for 4th, he stands poised to make his move into a solid 3rd. Things had to fall pretty much exactly this way for Fred to have the opportunity to win in South Carolina and parlay that win into further momentum.
Fate has done it's part. The only question now, is whether Fred, and his supporters, can take advantage of the window of opportunity.
Conventional wisdom is that Fred needs a win merely to stay alive. I disagree. If just staying alive is the goal, I think Thompson accomplishes that with a 3rd place finish, so long as he finishes ahead of Huckabee. In my view, John McCain and Mitt Romney get a buy to Florida by virtue of winning New Hampshire and Michigan. It is possible that they leave South Carolina as the only two effectively standing. Possible, but not likely.
What I think is probable is South Carolina narrows the field from 4 to 3, with the Thompson/Huckabee winner being that third guy.
Let's be honest, though. Though, a third place finish puts Thompson above Huck for third in the national race, it also puts him right on the razor's edge of elimination. Yes, third in South Carolina allows Fred to continue to draw breath but only until (barring a miracle) Florida.
For Thompson to do more than just stay alive post Carolina, he needs to win Carolina. It really is looking that simple. Florida and Super Tuesday are coming down fast and Thompson needs money and momentum going into them to have a plausible path to victory.
Staying alive for one more week only delays the inevitable. To have a realistic path to winning the nomination, Thompson must win South Carolina or come in a very, very close second.
Today, I will be making an electronic contribution to Thompson's war chest. I ask all of you to please do the same. This may be our last chance to avoid a Mcromliani nominee.
~Sonlit
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