Yes, you read that right.
Democrat Barack Obama is hurting Republicans John McCain and Ron Paul and helping Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee.
In New Hampshire, Independents can vote in either the Democratic or Republican primaries.
Either but not both.
Early indications were that as many as a third of the voters in the Republican primary would have been independents. Those independents pushed John McCain to a sizeable advantage over Mitt Romney for the New Hampshire win and elevated Ron Paul all the way up to third with as much as 14% of the vote. Both McCain and Paul are more popular with Independents than Republicans.
However, (in part due to Hillary's collapse) Independents are swarming to the dark side to vote for Obama. As a consequence, the Republican primary is becoming...well...a Republican primary.
Rasmussen Reports' estimates of Independent votes in the GOP primary has dropped from 32% to 27% as of Sunday.
This has caused McCain to drop to a single point lead over Romney and has caused Paul to drop from third, with 14%, to fifth, with 8%. If the current trend continues, Romney will win New Hampshire with McCain finishing second and Huckabee third.
It is tough to say whether a close second is enough to keep McCain in the race. My guess would be no. It is ironic, but Obama just may beat the Republicans in January, making November a fait accompli. |