Iowa has now spoken.
On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee's win was a good thing. Not so much that Huckabee won but that "not Romney" won. In that sense, "not Romney's" victory was a victory for Huckabee, Thompson and McCain. It keeps McCain alive until at least New Hampshire and Huck and Fred in the game until at least South Carolina.
Mitt Romney was the only guy in the field in contention for the Iowa-New Hampshire sweep. A win in Iowa, followed by a win in New Hampshire would have given Romney so much momentum, it's hard to see how he could have been stopped. With a win in New Hampshire (or even a second), Romney is very much alive. Third or worse in New Hampshire would be the end for Mitt.
Duncan Hunter and Ron Paul are, of course, toast. Don't kid yourself, so is Rudy Giuiliani. I don't give a damn if he campaigned there or not. First of all, Rudy's decision not to campaign in Iowa was a stupid one. Iowa is one of the three most purple states in America. The other two are New Hampshire and New Mexico. Those are the only three states to split allegiances in the last two Presidential elections.
The political breakdown in Iowa is 31% Democrat, 30% Republican, 39% Independent. You just don't get any more purple than that. Iowa would have been the perfect place for Rudy to convince us that he can win in the middle. He didn't. He lost. In fact, he got humiliated.
Rudy finished a distant sixth, losing better than 3 to 1 to Ron Paul. When you get tripled by Ron Paul, it's time to pack it in. say goodbye to Rudy, there is no more Rudy.
Fred Thompson finished 3rd and John McCain 4th, which keeps them both alive. However, for the GOP to have any chance to win in November, one (or both) of these guys are going to have to do much better than just stay alive.
The best scenario for us would be a decisive McCain victory in New Hampshire, followed by a Thompson win in South Carolina. The McCain win seems possible and, now, even likely.
The big questions for me (and I don't pretend to know the answers) are;
- How much will Romney and Giuiliani continue to fall pre- New Hampshire. It appears clear that neither will win New Hampshire but I wonder if Romney will fall enough to move Huck up to second. That would finish off Romney.
- If Giuiliani continues to drop, can Thompson back up his third place Iowa finish with a 4th in New Hampshire.
The worst scenario for us is another Romney-Huckabee or Huckabee-Romney 1-2 finish.
As I mentioned before, our only hope is to get McCain and/or Thompson past both of them. If our ticket is Huckabee/Romney or, even worse, Romney/Huckabee, we could be in for a real ass whuppin'.
The reason is that.....
On the Democratic side, the Obama-Edwards finish was a nightmare scenario for us. The only way it's worse is if it is Edwards-Obama. In terms of electability, the Democrats voted much smarter than did the Republicans. We do not want to run against Barack Obama and we defiantly do not want to run against John Edwards.
Just like circumstances have to change on the Republican side for the GOP to win, things have to change on the Dem side. We need to hope that Hillary Clinton bounces back in New Hampshire. The latest New Hampshire polling shows a Hillary-Obama-Edwards pecking order. That is precisely the result we want. Our best scenario is to not let Edwards get any more momentum.
Trust me on this. Edwards is the guy we should fear the most. If Edwards is the nominee, I don't think any one but McCain could beat him....and maybe not even McCain. Obama will be tough to beat but possible, if we put up the right ticket. Hillary, as you can all now see, is very vulnerable. She is the opponent we want.
The problem is that I think the Dems see that as well.
If Hillary loses to Obama again, she is toast.
So, in review. In New Hampshire, our best hope for the GOP side seems to be;
- McCain
- Huckabee
- Romney
- Thompson
- Clinton
- Obama
- Edwards
We only have to wait until Tuesday to see. |