Rasmussen Reports just released it's first projection at the electoral college and, no surprise, the democrats are leading...but by less than you might expect.The lead in safe or likely states is 248-189. When leaners are factored in, the Democratic advantage is 284- 216 with 38 considered true toss-ups.
That lead is not nearly as daunting as it may sound.
First, let's look at the "toss-ups". Colorado, Missouri, Nevada and Virginia. In 2000 and 2004, the GOP won all 4. It is not unrealistic to expect us to win all 4 again. Yet, for the sake of argument, we will say that one-Nevada- gets away.
That takes us to 289 for the Dems, 249 for the GOP.
Now let's look at the 4 leans Democratic States. Ohio, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Iowa.
In the 8 total contests, in those states in 2000 and 2004, we went 5-3 and were less than 5,000 votes from 7-1. Ohio is the one we won BOTH times, so don't say we can't do it again. So, assuming we win Ohio again, but lose the other 3, we are now at 269 for the Dems, 269 for the GOP. In that scenario, the Dems win by virtue of House control.
Can we find 1 Electoral vote among these prizes?
Michigan-17
Pennsylvania-21
Minnesota-10
Wisconsin-10
New Jersey-15
Washington-11
You bet your ass. With someone who has the broad support of McCain. We aren't out of this race by a long shot.
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