Many enemies of (and even a few supporters of) A Newt One continue to insist that John McCain doesn't have a chance this fall. The simple fact is that that dog just don't hunt. Although the election of John McCain is, by no means, a certainty, it's not a long shot by any means.Following on the heels of recent movement toward McCain, of Virginia and Ohio, Rasmussen Reports has just moved Michigan and Pennsylvania from "likely dem" to "leans dem".
The categorizations are based on polling, recent history and the betting in Rasmussen's markets.
However, if polling alone is used, the news is really bad for the Democrats, especially if Florida is added to the mix. The reason why is that, based on polling alone, John McCain currently leads both Obama and Clinton in all 5 states. Let me repeat that. John McCain currently leads Obama in all 5 of the states of Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan.
Yes, some of the leads are very small. Yes, it's a long way to election day. Nevertheless, this is not a good position for the "can't lose" Democrats to be finding themselves in. These 5 states have a combined Electoral value of 98 Electoral Votes and there is not many plausible paths to victory for the Democrats that does not include 3 of the 5. They could theoretically win with any 2 of the 5 provided they also sweep Colorado, Nevada, Iowa, New Mexico and Missouri. George W Bush won all 5 of those states in 2004
Anyone still saying John McCain cannot win this election needs to seriously rethink that position.
~Sonlit |