The only plausible path-at this point- for Democratic presumptive nominee Obama to beat Republican presumptive nominee McCain is to;1) Hold all the states that John Kerry won in 2004.
2) Win any three of the following four States. Colorado (9 Electoral votes),
Iowa (7), New Mexico (5) and Nevada (5).
George W Bush won Colorado and Nevada in 2000 and all four in 2004. To be sure, the Republicans are vulnerable in all four- particularly Colorado. I wouldn't bet against John McCain winning 2 of the 4. However, Dems hopes to pick up at least the minimum 17 Electoral votes they need by bagging all 3, or even 26, for all 4 is contingent on precept #1- holding all the states John Kerry won.
They won't. That is why they are going to lose this election. Rasmussen has shown Obama struggling all over Blueish Purple America; New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Oregon, Minnesota and, now, Wisconsin. The latest Rasmussen Reports survey shows McCain with a four point lead in the badger state.
These poll results have to be very troubling for Obama. For, if he loses in New Hampshire, he'll need a sweep of the four states I mentioned earlier, to eek out a narrow victory. If he loses any of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Oregon, Minnesota or Wisconsin...any of them, it's over.
He will.....it is.
~Sonlit |