Tuesday, July 15, 2008 Return to top
I put this in the form of a question because I cannot say that I know the answer to be yes. I have found some peculiarities in the recent Rasmussen Congressional polls that make me scratch my head. I'll throw them out, along with my observations and let you decide because I just don't know.
The first strange variable is what seems like a impossibly large gender gap for a "General public" poll. Rasmussen states;
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that, if given the choice, 46% of voters would choose their district's democratic candidate, while 36% would vote for the Republican candidate. The two parties are even among men but democrats enjoy an eighteen point lead among women.
Now, there has always been a gender gap between Republicans and Democrats but 18 points!?
Scott Rasmussen gives no logical reason to support such a huge gap.
But let's look at more.......
Among voters not affiliated with either political party, Republicans and Democrats are essentially even in this poll. But, there are more Democrats in the nation than Republicans.
So, let's review. Republicans are tied nationally among men (which would presumably include Democrats) and they are tied nationally among unaffiliated voters (which would presumably include women).
Yet, we have an 18 point deficit among women nationally and a 10 point deficit among all voters nationally, on the strength of Democrats? Is that really possible?
I'm really asking, folks. I'd like to hear your thoughts.
Maybe this is just straight up truth or maybe Rasmussen is oversampling Democrats by underestimating the numbers of former Republicans who will still not support the Democrats even though, like me, they are fed up with the GOP.
Your thoughts on this PLEASE. Have I lost it, or has the Knight picked up a trend?
~Sonlit |
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