Friday, August 1, 2008   Return to top

Yesterday, Rasmussen released 'good news' for John McCain- he has moved back into a tie with Barack Obama. We have reached a new low in Republican expectations when a tie in Montana is good news. If McCain can seriously lose Montana, let's face it, he can lose a whole bunch of states.

I said it in June, I'll say it again. If McCain is truly struggling in Montana, his goose is cooked.
I am just having more and more trouble believing that he is struggling in Montana.

It's not that I'm in denial and don't want to believe it. Trust me, I think McCain getting shellacked will be good for us- I hope it happens. It's not that I am one of these people that doesn't trust polls. (I don't trust Newsweek or CBS because they over sample Dems, and have done so for decades but I trust Rasmussen and a few others.) It's not because I don't see the visceral anti-Republican atmosphere.

It is none of those reasons. The reason I am questioning poll results showing McCain bleeding everywhere from Montana to Florida is straight arithmetic. To put it bluntly, the numbers just don't add up. The whole (National total) is far greater than the sum of it's parts (State totals).

4 years ago today, it was boldly conceded by me, to a chat room fairy named Benden that If the election were today [then] Bush would lose. It's just called intellectual honesty. I have it, he doesn't.

Later, he would claim, that I predicted a Bush defeat. I did not. I said "If the election were today.....". As history would show, the Election was not on August 1st, 2004, and Bush rallied- just like I said he would. (that sort of things happens with frightening regularity).

Nevertheless, An honest assessment of the August 1st, 2004 Rasmussen poll, led one to believe that Kerry- at that moment- had the clear upper hand. It was suggested-and rightly so- that his lead would probably mean wins in Ohio, New Hampshire, Nevada and a few other battleground states. To say he could have won the election- Certainly. However, it was never-never- suggested that John Kerry could win Montana, North and South Dakota or North Carolina. That scenario would require a far bigger Republican meltdown than what we saw in the summer of 2004.

Conventional wisdom is that that is indeed what is occurring and, as a result, John McCain is poised to lose more states than any Republican since Goldwater. Well, ok. If that's what it is then that's what it is. The only question to be asked is Do the National numbers support the conventional wisdom?

You decide. Both of the following polls are identical- the Rasmussen daily tracking poll of likely voters, with "leaners" included. The first poll is from the date August 1, 2004. The second is from today- August 1, 2008. Look at these polls and tell me which candidate has the greater likelihood of losing Montana.

John F Kerry 51% George W Bush 46%
Barack Obama 47% John McCain 46%

If someone can explain this to me, I shall be only too happy to hear it.

~Sonlit

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